Yemeni President Hadi’s return to Aden may mark his last visit to the country as its president, predicts the online newspaper http://www.raialyoum.com

The Houthi forces’ entry into Aden that Yemeni President ‘Abed-Rabbo Mansour Hadi had adopted as his temporary capital last February was the main reason for launching Operation Decisive Storm’s air raids six months ago, and for the ‘Arab-ization’ of the Yemeni crisis via forming a ten-state-strong Saudi-led Arab coalition. President Hadi reached Aden on Tuesday, together with the other members of his cabinet, two weeks after Vice-President and PM Khaled al-Bahah’s return. This may mean that the main aim behind launching the Storm has been achieved.

The pressing issue now is whether the coalition’s warplanes will continue bombing Yemeni cities and positions at the same pace on the pretext of fighting the Houthi/Saleh alliance, or whether it will be satisfied with this achievement and bring the air raids to an end.

It is difficult to answer this question. Logic dictates that the bombardment should stop and that negotiations should begin in which all parties take part until they find a political solution. But negotiations have ceased ever since Yemeni Foreign Minister Riad Yassin totally denied that any talks were underway in Muscat. President Hadi previously surprised everyone when he changed his mind about joining the negotiations only two days after agreeing to do so. Nothing suggests that the negotiations will now resume any time in the foreseeable future.

There are many explanations for this ‘stalemate.’ Most important are the pressures exerted by Saudi Arabia and the commitments Riyadh has made that its forces and those of its allied states are ready to wage a decisive and sweeping offensive that ends the Houthis and their ally president Ali ‘Abdullah Saleh’s control of the Yemeni capital Sana’a. That would supposedly strengthen President Hadi’s hand in any future negotiations. And as a matter of fact, more than ten thousand soldiers from the coalition states have entered the Ma’rib countryside with their heavy equipment in preparation for the promised offensive.

This ground offensive, however, remains stalled in Ma’rib Province. It is meeting fierce resistance that has prevented it from exerting its full control over the province so far. At the same time, the coalition is still fighting another, no less fierce, war in Taiz. Therefore, President Hadi’s return to Sana’a remains out of reach. Moreover, his residency in Aden may not last long because of the deteriorating security situation there.

President Hadi had previously leaked reports to Saudi newspapers claiming that he would hold the [July 2015 end of Ramadan] Eid al-Fitr prayers in Aden. But his wishes were not realized then after the hard-line Islamist organizations, including ISIS and al-Qa’ida, intensified their attacks on government buildings, such as the Political Security headquarters. That was a strongly-worded warning that bore fruit by forcing him to postpone his visit. What is certain is that President Hadi will hold the Eid al-Adha prayers in Aden, after which he will return to Riyadh. In fact, it is not unlikely for this may to be his last visit to Yemen in his capacity as president in light of the growing speculation that there is no place for him in any future political agreement.

There is also further speculation that his Saudi allies are pressuring him to step down in favor of Vice-President Khaled Bahah who is the strongman acceptable to most parties.